Bush's Crap Bet

Michael Gordon in the New York Times writes:

With his new plan to secure Iraq, President Bush is in effect betting that Iraqi leaders are committed to building a multisectarian state, and his strategy will stand or fall on that assumption.

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“Everybody raises a question about the intentions and capability of this government,” a senior American official said, referring to the Iraqi government. “Is this a government that really is a unity government or is it in fact pursuing, either explicitly or implicitly, a Shia hegemony agenda?”

Have they not been paying attention? Maliki rode to power on the support of Muqtada Al Sadr and has done as little as possible to stop what even Centcom refers to as the "ethnic cleansing" efforts of the Shia militias and the Shias who have infiltrated the Iraqi Security Forces. Shit, didn't they notice that the guys Maliki handed Saddam over to for a lynchin' were chanting "Muqtada."

John Dickerson in Slate adds:

Bush's plan takes as a matter of faith that Maliki can deal with Muqtada Sadr and his militia—to which the Iraqi prime minister is politically beholden. It assumes that ragtag Iraqi troops will shortly be trained, equipped, and capable. Bush was admirably blunt this time about his past mistakes and the slog ahead. But the confidence he expressed in the Iraqi government—without caveats, doubts, or warnings—seemed utterly fantastical.

I'll go further --- the Shiite political leaders in Iraq will ride out the American troop presence so long as we keep assisting them in their war against the Sunnis. If we make any real effort to force them to accept Sunnis fully into a reconciliation or unity government, their public faces will politely ask us to leave while their millitias wil increase their attacks on American troops.